NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 13 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. (see video below)
Tropical Storm Bud centered near 21.3N 109.4W at 03900 UTC about 100 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas moving NNW at 6 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Deep convection associated with this system continues to decrease. Scattered moderate convection is found in a convective band between 60-120 nm in the N semicircle. Bud will continue to weaken and move NNW into southern Baja California and the Gulf of California through Fri. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Santa Fe to La Paz, including Cabo San Lucas.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 109.0 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur late Thursday and move over the Gulf of California by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Although slow weakening is expected during the next day or so, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018
BUD WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR…
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…19.6N 108.8W ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…90 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.35 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018
Hurricane Bud has been maintaining a well-defined eye for the past several hours but recent satellite images suggest some loss of definition. The current intensity is set to 115 kt in agreement with a Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB. Even though Bud is currently a powerful hurricane, it is going to pass over ocean waters of progressively decreasing heat content and lower SSTs. Therefore, weakening is likely. Gradual weakening should commence later today, but by Wednesday the rate of weakening should increase as the ocean becomes significantly less conducive. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus guidance IVCN, however the corrected/smart consensus models HCCA and the Florida State University Superensemble show a more rapid decline in intensity than shown here. Bud is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by the time it reaches mainland Mexico. Bud’s movement has continued to exhibit a trochoidal oscillation, which is typical of major hurricanes. Smoothing through these trochoidal wobbles gives an estimated motion that is the same as in the previous advisory, or 315/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is essentially unchanged. Bud is moving between a large mid-level anticyclone centered near the United States/Mexico border and the circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta. Over the next day or so, increased ridging to the north of Bud should result in a slowing of the forward motion of the tropical cyclone. Later, a trough off the southern California and northern Baja California Peninsula coasts should cause Bud to turn to the north with some increase in forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous one, and in good agreement with the latest multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 18.1N 108.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 20.9N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 23.4N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 26.7N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 31.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
National Hurricane Center Hurricane Bud Discussion 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018
There have been some fluctuations in the amount of deep convection surrounding the ragged eye during the past several hours, but the overall trend has been upward. Although the subjective T-numbers have not changed significantly, NHC and UW/CIMMS objective numbers have increased, and support an initial intensity of 105 kt for this advisory.
Bud has the opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12 to 24 hours before the environmental conditions become less conducive. A faster weakening is expected to occur when Bud moves over the cooler waters near the Baja California peninsula. By then, Bud is expected to be below hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast closely follows the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which has been performing well. Satellite fixes indicate that Bud is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 6 kt.
The hurricane continues to be steered by the weak flow around a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36 hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is in between HCCA and the multi-model ensemble.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 106.8W 105 KT 120 MPH (Category 3) 12H 12/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH (Category 3) 24H 12/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 100 KT 115 MPH (Category 3) 36H 13/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH (Category 1) 48H 13/1200Z 19.0N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH (Category 1) 72H 14/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 22.5N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Jun 10 2018
Tropical Storm Bud centered near 14.7N 103.5W at 1500 UTC or 360 nm SSE of Cabo Corrientes Mexico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 99W and 108W.
Bud will continue to intensify as it moves on a northwestward track.Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 99W and 108W.
Tropical Storm Bud will intensify into a hurricane early this week as it moves northwestward off of Mexico’s Pacific coast. Bud will be the second hurricane to quickly strengthen over the warm Pacific waters in a matter of days, following in Aletta’s footsteps.
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Video:Hurricane Bud WARNING: Category 4 storm builds with Mexican coast on high alert