Tropical Storm Aletta

Hurricane Aletta 0500 Hours June 9 2018
Hurricane Aletta Satellite 1100 Hours June 9 2018
Hurricane Aletta Satellite 1100 Hours June 9 2018

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Jun 9 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Aletta (see 11:00 video below), located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane Aletta centered near 16.2N 112.7W at 09/0900 UTC or  180 nm SSW of Socorro Island moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated  minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed  is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to strong  convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate  convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 20N between 109W and  115W. Aletta is being impacted by increasing vertical shear and
cooler sea surface temperatures, and will continue to weaken over this weekend.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area centered about 400 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are becoming better organized. If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated later today while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, parallel to, but offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent. If this system becomes a tropical storm it will be named Bud.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 8 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Aletta located several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico. A low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is showing signs organization, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to increase this morning. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development throughout the next several days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Jun 8 2018

Hurricane Aletta has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane, the first major hurricane of the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, while another area off the Mexican coast is expected to become the second named storm by this weekend or early next week.

Hurricane Aletta  centered near 15.8N 111.2W at 1500 UTC or 180  nm S of Socorro Island moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum  central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120  kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection  is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated  strong convection is noted elsewhere from 08N to 20N between 106W and 114W. Aletta is expected to continue to intensify during the next 12 hours, with its maximum winds reaching 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt later today. Aletta is then forecast to be impacted by vertical shear, and begin to weaken afterwards.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has increased during the past several hours, but remains disorganized. Upper-level winds are forecast to become conducive for development later today, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jun 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean fromthe Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

Recently upgraded Hurricane Aletta is centered near 15.3N 110.0W at 2100 UTC, or about 400 nm WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving  WNW or 300 deg at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Minimum central pressure has  lowered to 987 mb. Latest visible satellite imagery shows that  Aletta has acquired an eye feature during the day as bandingfeatures become more coiled around it. The satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong  convection is occurring within 210 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 180 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Other scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of a line from 11N112W to 13N110W, and within 30 nm of 11N115W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Aletta will gradually strengthen, with its maximum winds reaching 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt by late Fri night per latest NHC advisory, Aletta is then forecast to be impacted by vertical shear on Sat. This should begin to weaken the cyclone into next week.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 7 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo Mexico.

Tropical Storm Aletta is centered near 14.9N 109.3W at 1500 UTC, or about 380 nm SW of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving WNW or  290 deg at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Minimum central pressure is estimated at  991 mb. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered strong
convection within 90 nm NE and 60 nm NW quadrants of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is located  elsewhere within 180 nm in the NE quadrant, 210 nm in the SE  quadrant and 120 nm in the western semicircle. Similar convection is within 30 nm of a line from 13N103.5W to 15N103.5W, and  within 60 nm of 11N111W. Aletta is gradually becoming better  defined in its overall cloud pattern as by its increase of  banding features and what appears to be small central dense  overcast over the center. Per the 1500 UTC NHC advisory, Aletta  is forecast to move generally west-northwestward to northwest
over the next few days. It is forecast to strengthen to a minimal hurricane by this evening with maximum sustained winds of 65 kt  gusts to 80 kt as it moves over very warm sea surface temperatures and remains under favorable upper- level conditions.

1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development this weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Jun 7 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta  located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo Mexico.Tropical Storm Aletta is centered near 14.6N 109.2W at 0900 UTC,  or about 390 nm SW of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving W or 280 deg at  6 kt. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 55 kt with gusts  to 65 kt. Minimum central pressure is estimated at 994 mb.  Latest satellite imagery shows numerous strong thunderstorms  persisting across the NE semicircle, where the strongest winds  are found. Scattered to numerous strong convection is located  within 180 nm NE, 120 nm SE, 45 nm SW, and 120 nm across the NW  quadrants of Aletta. A tail of trailing scattered moderate to  strong convection to the SW of the center is found from 09N to  12.5N between 108W and 116W. A westward motion will continue  today, with Aletta expected to reach hurricane strength near  14.9N 111.0W tonight. Aletta will move more of west- northwestward through late Sat before veering slightly NW Sun  and Mon. Aletta is forecast to strengthen to 75 kt Fri night as  it moves over very warm sea surface temperatures and remains  under favorable upper-level conditions. Very strong convection  is expected to persist across the south and southeast periphery  of this system through Fri.

1. A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development this weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. *  Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent..

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC.

Tropical Storm Aletta is centered near ear 14.7N 107.1W at 1500  UTC, moving W or 280 deg at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Minimum central pressure is estimated at 1000 mb. Latest satellite imagery shows that scattered to numerous strong convection continue to develop in a classic  comma pattern. This convection consists of scattered to numerous  strong convection, with cold cloud-top temperatures, located
within 270 nm of the center in the SW quadrant…120 nm of the  center in the SE quadrant 60 nm of the center in the E quadrant.  Low-level clouds are seen spiraling in a cyclonic motion in the  W and NW quadrants of Aletta where cirrus clouds are thin and  minimal. A west- northwestward and then westward motion with a  decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several  days as the system gradually strengthens to hurricane strength  Thursday morning as it moves over very warm waters and under  favorable upper-level conditions. Very strong convection is  expected to persist across the south and southeast periphery of  this system through Thursday. Please refer to the latest NHC  Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ22/MIATCMEP2, and  the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers  FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system.

Tropical Storm Aletta – The first tropical storm of the 2018 East Pacific hurricane season Tropical Storm Aletta developed south of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  An area of showers and thunderstorms that AccuWeather has been monitoring for tropical development since last weekend strengthened to a tropical depression south of Mexico on Tuesday night before quickly reaching tropical storm status early Wednesday morning.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 06 2018

000 WTPZ22 KNHC 061434 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022018 1500 UTC WED JUN 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 107.1W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT……. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 6 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico. 

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2. Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

We are watching the NE Atlantic for signs of Tropical Storm Beryl developing.

Article Resources:

Video: JAMAICA TVJ NEWS -Hurricane Aletta a Category 4 storm in Pacific off Mexico

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