Atlantic Hurricane Season – June 1, to November 30
The 2018 predictions for Atlantic Hurricane season (see video below), pretty much mirror 2017. An early hurricane can be defined as occurring in the three months prior to the start of the season, and a late as occurring in the three months outside of the season. With these criteria, the earliest observed hurricane in the Atlantic was on March 7, 1908, while the latest observed hurricane was on December 31, 1954.
On May 1, 2017 Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) said 2017 could be the most active since 2005 when five hurricanes hit the United States. GWO predicted for a destructive hurricane season with 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, four major hurricanes and 2 major impact hurricanes for the United States.
Colorado State University hurricane researchers predicted a slightly below-average season in mid-April, also citing the potential development of El Nino as well as anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic as primary factors. The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicted 11 named storms, with four becoming hurricanes and two reaching major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
So how did we end up for 2017? In 2017, the first hurricane was named Franklin on August 7 and the last hurricane was named Ophelia on October 9. So the hurricanes were pretty much steadily in the extended forecast for 77 days. More than just a footnote, Hurricane Harvey (August 17 to September 1) tied with 2005 Hurricane Katrina as the most costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.
We had 17 named storms (1 more than predicted), ten hurricanes (2 more than predicted) occurred in succession, the greatest number of consecutive hurricanes since the start of the satellite era in 1966; six of the ten hurricanes further strengthened into major hurricanes from category 3 to 5 (2 more than predicted).
Comparison – 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
June and July are typically, the best months in summer to take a cruise. That said, there was nothing typical about the 2005 hurricane season, which came in with guns blazing.
There were thirty-one tropical and subtropical cyclones formed, with 28 nameable storms, many of which broke records as individual storm as well as contributing to a number of season records, the most major hurricanes, seven; five Category 4 and 5 hurricanes and holds the record for the most Category 5 hurricanes in a single season, four.
Two early major hurricane arrivals were on July 5, 2005 Hurricane Dennis which increased to Category 4 formed in the eastern Caribbean and Hurricane Emily increased to Category 5 formed in the Atlantic on July 11, 2005.
By August 13, Hurricane Katrina would begin as Tropical Depression Ten. By August 28, Katrina was a Category 4 hurricane. Katrina is estimated to be responsible for at least $125 billion (2005 USD) in damage, breaking Hurricane Andrew’s record in 1992 and making it the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history until Harvey tied it in 2017. Hurricane Katrina was responsible for 1,836 deaths. An estimated 1.2 million people left ahead of the storm. However, tens of thousands of residents could not or would not leave.
Hurricane Rita had the final word in 2005. Rita made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border on September 24. Major flooding was reported in Port Arthur and Beaumont, Texas, while Cameron and Calcasieu parishes in Louisiana were devastated. Offshore oil platforms throughout Rita’s path also suffered significant damage. Six people are confirmed dead from Rita’s direct effects, and total damage from the storm is estimated at about $18.5 billion (2005 USD). One hundred and thirteen indirect deaths were reported, mostly from the exodus from Houston, Texas and surrounding counties. Katrina and Rita combined an effective one-two punch to the Gulf states with deaths totaling 1,949 in a period of one month.
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions
GWO says in 2018 you can just about expect the same as 2017, “you can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. There is the potential for 6 named storms making United States landfalls.” On the average, the entire Atlantic Basin has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes.
The 2018 storm names are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie and William.
Video:2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Animation