Tropical Storm Lee

Atlantic Weather Outlook Tropical Storm Lee 1100 Hours September 22 2017
Atlantic Weather Outlook Tropical Storm Lee 1100 Hours September 22 2017
Former Tropical Storm Lee 1100 Hours September 22 2017
Former Tropical Storm Lee 1100 Hours September 22 2017

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1115 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

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For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook to add discussion of a new system over the central Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose, located a little over a hundred miles south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located just to
the north of Grand Turk Island.

1. Updated: A small area of low pressure has developed over the central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The low is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, although the circulation appears somewhat elongated. Some additional development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly northward through early next week. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 40 percent.

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Previous Warning  800 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jose, located a little less than two hundred miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located less than two hundred miles southeast of Grand Turk Island.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the remnants of Lee remain disorganized. Upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for significant development during the next few days. The low is forecast to move north-northwestward or northward over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

Previous Warning 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jose, located a couple of hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on extremely dangerous Hurricane Maria, located
over Puerto Rico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized during the past several hours in association with the remnants of Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Although
environmental conditions are marginal for development, only a small increase in the overall organization of the system would result in the regeneration of Lee. This low is expected to move northward over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, high, 70 percent.

Previous Warning 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on extremely dangerous Hurricane
Maria, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea approaching the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

1. A small area of low pressure associated with remnants of Lee is producing disorganized shower activity about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. No development is expected
during the next day or so, but environmental conditions could turn marginally conducive for tropical cyclone regeneration by the weekend. This low is expected to move northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent

Previous Warning 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located a few hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Maria, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea more than 100 miles southeast of St.
Croix.

1. A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is producing disorganized shower activity about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by the weekend while the system moves northwestward to northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Previous Warning  1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located a few hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Maria, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

1. A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by late in the week while the system moves northwestward to northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Previous Warning 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Lee has degenerated into a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent burst of convection, and no longer classifies as a tropical cyclone.

As forecast by global models, strong upper-level westerly winds have become established over the disturbance, and this pattern should not allow regeneration. Some additional bursts of convection could still develop while the disturbance moves northwestward until dissipation in a day or so.

This is the last advisory on Lee issued by the National Hurricane Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 15.1N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
12H 19/1200Z 16.0N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
24H 20/0000Z…DISSIPATED

Previous Warning 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

After being nearly devoid of thunderstorm activity overnight, a burst of deep convection has developed near and to the east of the center this morning. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with earlier ASCAT data. Despite the development of deep convection, the overall forecast reasoning for Lee’s future intensity is unchanged. Lee is expected to be embedded within very strong westerly to northwesterly shear during the next couple of days. These hostile winds, combined with a dry environment, should cause Lee to weaken and become a remnant low in about 24 hours. The global models suggest that Lee could open up into a trough within the next 2 to 3 days. Since the models remain in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as
the previous one.

Lee is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level high pressure system. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight as the tropical depression moves toward a large-scale trough. A continued northwestward motion is forecast until the system dissipates over the central Atlantic. There is not much spread in the model solutions, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.1N 40.6W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
12H 19/0000Z 14.8N 41.9W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
24H 19/1200Z 16.0N 43.2W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
36H 20/0000Z 17.4N 44.2W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
48H 20/1200Z 18.9N 45.3W 25 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
72H 21/1200Z…DISSIPATED (W of Cape Verde, Islands)

Previous Warning 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

Deep convection associated with Lee has waned over the past several hours as dry air and shear take a toll on the tropical cyclone. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed 25 kt winds over the northwest portion of the circulation, assuming that there are stronger winds to the northeast of the center, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be generous.

The vertical shear is forecast to increase to greater than 30 kt during the next 24 hours and it is doubtful that Lee will be able to generate enough organized deep convection to keep its status as a tropical cyclone for much longer. As a result of the shear and nearby dry air, weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is predicted by Monday night, if not sooner. The global models show the circulation dissipating in 2 to 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast.

Lee has turned west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates, and little change to the previous NHC track forecast was required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.6N 38.5W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
12H 18/1200Z 14.1N 39.7W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
24H 19/0000Z 15.2N 41.4W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 42.8W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
48H 20/0000Z 17.7N 44.1W 25 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
72H 21/0000Z…DISSIPATED (W of Cape Verde, Islands)

Previous Warning 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

A small burst of deep convection re-formed near Lee’s center, but since the earlier ASCAT pass barely showed 30 kt, that will remain the initial intensity. Increasing shear and a dry mid-level environment will continue to take a toll on Lee during the next few days. Gradual weakening is still expected, and Lee could lose organized deep convection by 36 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF models degenerate the system into a surface trough by day 3, and dissipation is now indicated in the NHC forecast at that time.

Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt, but it should turn west-northwestward soon due to the weakness of the subtropical ridge to its north. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until Lee dissipates on day 3. Little change was required to the updated NHC track forecast, which lies close to theconsensus aids.

Previous Warning 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

An 1144 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Lee is no longer producing tropical-storm-force winds. In addition, deep convection is fizzling, and there are only a few convective elements remaining in a band to the south of the center. Lee is downgraded to a tropical depression with 30-kt winds, and even that could be generous given what the ASCAT data is showing. Since the cyclone is already struggling in its current environment, it probably won’t do much better going forward since vertical shear is expected to increase to 30 kt in about 24 hours. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected, and Lee could degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF both dissipate the low in 3 to 4 days, so the new NHC forecast now shows that occurring by day 4.

Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt. Even though the ridge to the north of the cyclone is not very strong, Lee’s weak nature should cause it to be steered generally westward or west-northwestward for the next 3 days before it dissipates. The NHC track forecast remains just south of the various consensus aids, and it is not too different from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 13.0N 36.7W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
12H 18/0000Z 13.2N 37.8W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
24H 18/1200Z 13.8N 39.5W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 41.2W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
48H 19/1200Z 15.7N 42.8W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
72H 20/1200Z 17.5N 45.9W  30 MPH (E of Antigua and Barbuda)

Previous Warning 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 34.2 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A west-northwestward motion is expected Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Previous Warning 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

Deep convection has increased in intensity and coverage since this time yesterday, and a recent partial ASCAT pass from around 1100 UTC indicated that the system is now producing tropical-storm-force winds at least to the east of its center. Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee with maximum winds of 35 kt. Lee has been able to strengthen a little despite about 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear.

The cyclone appears to be located in a sweet spot of relatively low shear, with much stronger upper- level westerly winds located not too far to the north, and it may be able to thread the needle of lower shear for another 36 hours or so. After that time, the westerlies drop southward, and Lee will likely be hammered by 30 kt of westerly shear by 48 hours. With all that in mind, Lee is forecast to strengthen only slightly over the next day or so, with weakening expected to begin by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and HCCA, and Lee may ultimately degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.

Lee’s initial motion is estimated to be 265/10 kt. The storm is located to the south of a weak mid-level ridge, and it is expected to move generally westward or west-northwestward for the entire forecast period. Although some of the track models are showing a more pronounced poleward motion, Lee’s relatively low intensity and eventual weakening will likely keep it steered by lower-level flow. As a result, the NHC track forecast is near the southern edge of the guidance envelope, although not quite as far south as the ECMWF model. This forecast is not too different from the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.5N 33.1W 40 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
12H 17/0000Z 12.4N 34.1W 45 MPH  (W of Cape Verde Islands)
24H 17/1200Z 12.5N 35.3W 45 MPH  (NE of Trinidad and Tobago)
36H 18/0000Z 12.9N 36.7W 45 MPH  (E of Barbados)
48H 18/1200Z 13.6N 38.4W 45 MPH  (E of Barbados)
72H 19/1200Z 15.6N 42.3W 40 MPH  (E of Dominica)
96H 20/1200Z 17.0N 46.0W 35 MPH  (E of Antigua and Barbuda)
120H 21/1200Z 18.0N 49.5W 30 MPH  (E of Antigua and Barbuda)

Previous Warning 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located near the northern coast of central Cuba, and on Hurricane Jose, located just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Katia, which has dissipated over eastern Mexico.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands has become somewhat better organized today. Environmental conditions are expected to support at least some additional development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system moves generally northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 40 percent.

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Previous Warning 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located near the coast of central Cuba, on Hurricane Jose, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Katia, located inland over eastern Mexico.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has increased since yesterday, and some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 30 percent.

Video: Updates on Hurricane Jose, Maria and Lee