Tropical Storm Lee

Tropical Storm Lee Track 1100 Hours September 29 2017
Tropical Storm Lee Track 1100 Hours September 29 2017
Tropical Storm Lee Satellite 1100 Hours September 29 2017
Tropical Storm Lee Satellite 1100 Hours September 29 2017

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017

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Lee continues to accelerate toward the northeast, and the estimated motion is now 045/27 kt. Due to continued strong northerly shear, the low-level center of Lee is exposed and deep convection is confined to the southeast quadrant of the cyclone. No new ASCAT data has been available since yesterday evening, but some weakening since the last advisory is assumed, given the limited extent of convection. The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt, making Lee a tropical storm.

Lee is crossing a tight SST gradient north of the Gulf Stream, and will be passing over SSTs below 23 deg C within the next couple of hours. The cold SSTs, plus continued high shear, should cause the circulation of Lee to continue to spin down over the next day or two, while the cyclone continues to accelerate toward the northeast. Some of Lee’s spin-down will likely be offset by the increasing forward speed of the cyclone, limiting how much the wind speed can decrease, but the dynamical models still forecast that Lee will open
up into a trough in 24 to 36 h. Very little change has been made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, which remain close to the track and intensity consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 40.1N 49.5W 70 MPH (E of New Jersey)
12H 30/0000Z 43.1N 43.9W 65 MPH (NE of Nova Scotia, Canada)
24H 30/1200Z 47.6N 32.8W  65 MPH (E of Newfoundland, Canada)

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Previous Warning 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

While Lee is still displaying a distinct 10-15 nm eye in the GOES-16 visible imagery this morning, the deep convection of the cirrus canopy is lopsided with most of the cold cloud tops west of the center. This may be due to moderate vertical shear induced by an upper-low southwest of the hurricane. The SAB, TAFB, and Advanced Dvorak Technique intensity estimates have not changed, so 80 kt is retained for the maximum sustained winds.

Lee is now moving again, with a 12-h motion of south-southwest at 2 kt. As a narrow mid-level ridge builds to the north of Lee, the hurricane should turn toward the west on Tuesday and west-northwest
on Wednesday at a slightly faster forward speed. Starting in about three days, Lee should begin recurvature toward the northeast, accelerating to over 20 kt by day 5 as the hurricane enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is shifted some toward the west through day 4, toward the tightly-packed global and hurricane model guidance.

The moderate vertical shear affecting Lee and some upwelled cool water under the hurricane may cause slightly weakening shortly. After Lee moves back toward warmer water, the hurricane may restrengthen some, but it is not anticipated that the system will reach major hurricane status. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the HWRF, LGEM, and COAMPS guidance.

Lee remains a tiny hurricane, though no recent information has been available about its wind radii. The official size forecast anticipates a slight increase in tropical storm force and hurricane force wind radii, based upon the RVCN size consensus method.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 30.8N 49.9W 90 MPH Category 1 (E of Bermuda)
12H 26/0000Z 30.6N 50.6W 85 MPH  Category 1 (E of Bermuda)
24H 26/1200Z 30.6N 52.1W 90 MPH  Category 1 (E of Bermuda)
36H 27/0000Z 31.0N 53.6W 100 MPH  Category 2 (SE of Bermuda)
48H 27/1200Z 31.5N 54.5W 100 MPH  Category 2 (SE of Bermuda)
72H 28/1200Z 33.4N 54.8W 90 MPH  Category 1 (NE of Bermuda)
96H 29/1200Z 37.9N 50.3W 80 MPH  Category 1 (NE of Bermuda)
120H 30/1200Z 45.0N 39.0W 60 MPH (E of Bermuda)

Previous Warning 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense overcast. SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that remains 80 kt.

The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low vertical shear and warm waters. However, the HWRF and COAMPS dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its own cold wake in a couple of days. By day 4 or 5, the environment should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of Hurricane Maria. The official intensity forecast is in between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory.

The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets re-established north of Lee. By day 4 the system should recurve and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated
faster toward the northeast by day 5. The official track forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach.

Lee is a tiny hurricane. The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the center. The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN multi-model scheme.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 31.3N 49.7W 90 MPH  Category 1 (SE of Bermuda)
12H 25/0600Z 31.0N 49.2W 100 MPH  Category 2 (SE of Bermuda)
24H 25/1800Z 30.7N 49.1W 100 MPH  Category 2 (SE of Bermuda)
36H 26/0600Z 30.3N 50.1W 100 MPH  Category 2 (SE of Bermuda)
48H 26/1800Z 30.4N 51.5W 90 MPH  Category 1 (SE of Bermuda)
72H 27/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W 85 MPH  Category 1 (SE of Bermuda)
96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 53.0W 80 MPH  Category 1 (SE of Bermuda)
120H 29/1800Z 37.0N 49.0W  65 MPH

Previous Warning 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

The rapid intensification of Lee appears to have slowed for now. Lee has a well-defined 10 to 15 n mi wide eye, but the cloud tops surrounding the eye have not cooled since the previous advisory. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS all support 75 to 80 kt, and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt.

The intensity forecast of the small hurricane is somewhat tricky. As mentioned in the previous discussion, Lee is forecast to remain in a low-shear environment for the next few days, but the slow motion of the hurricane is likely to cause upwelling and a decrease in sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane. Although the intensity guidance is slightly lower this cycle, the new NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and brings Lee to near major hurricane strength within the next 24 to 36 hours. Late in the period decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should impart a weakening trend.

Lee has turned southeastward. The track models are similar with the overall forecast scenario of Lee moving slowly southeastward today, then turning west-southwestward or westward late Monday and Tuesday as a high pressure ridge builds to the north and northwest of the hurricane. This ridge is forecast to weaken later in the week, with Lee turning northward, then northeastward ahead of Maria as the mid-latitude westerlies dip southward. There is a large bifurcation in the guidance models after about 48 hours, due to the location and timing of recurvature. The NHC track leans closer to
the ECMWF and latest European ensemble mean, but the track forecast is of low confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 31.4N 49.9W 90 MPH Category 1 (SE of Bermuda)
12H 25/0000Z 31.1N 49.4W 100 MPH  Category 2 (SE of Bermuda)
24H 25/1200Z 30.7N 48.9W 110 MPH  Category 2 (SE of Bermuda)
36H 26/0000Z 30.2N 49.2W 110 MPH  Category 2 (SE of Bermuda)
48H 26/1200Z 30.1N 50.2W 110 MPH  Category 2 (SE of Bermuda)
72H 27/1200Z 30.7N 51.8W 105 MPH  Category 2 (SE of Bermuda)
96H 28/1200Z 32.2N 52.5W 100 MPH  Category 2 (E of Bermuda)
120H 29/1200Z 35.0N 50.5W 80 MPH  Category 2 (NE of Bermuda)

Previous Warning  1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2017

Lee remains a compact tropical cyclone as indicated by a 20-kt wind report at 1200Z from ship LAQX5, located only 70 nmi east of the center. A 0943Z WindSAT pass had a few 40-45 uncontaminated wind vectors in the southwestern quadrant, so the intensity has been conservatively increased to 40 kt, which is closer to the satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion is a slow drift toward the north or 360/02 kt, based primarily on microwave satellite fixes. The global and regional models are in general agreement that Lee will move slowly at 5 kt or less for the next 5 days, and either make a wide or a tight anticyclonic turn back toward the west after 72 h due to a building high pressure ridge to the north of the cyclone, and a stationary upper-level low located a few hundred nmi to the south. The GFS makes the widest turn, whereas the ECMWF makes the tightest turn; the remainder of the model guidance lies somewhere between those two extremes. Until the model guidance becomes more convergent, the official NHC forecast track will remain basically down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the blend of the TCVA, TVCX, and HCCA consensus models.

Earlier WindSAT and SSMI/S microwave data showed that Lee possessed an 8-10 nmi diameter eye-like feature in both the low- and mid-levels, indicating that the cyclone has a well-defined inner-core wind field, albeit quite small. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models to decrease to 5-10 kt during the next 48 hours or so while Lee remains over SSTs of about 27.5 deg C. In addition, upper-level temperatures are currently running, and are expected to remain, about 3 deg C colder than normal, which should ensure sufficient instability for the
generation of inner-core thunderstorm activity through the entire forecast period. Based on the combination of these favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions, Lee is forecast to steadily develop into a hurricane by 48-72 hours, with the only inhibiting factor being occasional intrusions of very dry mid-level air. However, the strong instability/CAPE that will be available should allow for deep convection to more or less persist near the center until modest westerly shear begins to affect the cyclone by 72-120 hours, during which time a slow weakening trend is expected. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and is close to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 31.9N 49.4W 45 MPH (E of Bermuda)
12H 24/0000Z 32.2N 49.1W 50 MPH (E of Bermuda)
24H 24/1200Z 32.3N 48.3W 60 MPH (E of Bermuda)
36H 25/0000Z 31.9N 47.2W 65 MPH (E of Bermuda)
48H 25/1200Z 31.3N 46.2W 70 MPH (E of Bermuda)
72H 26/1200Z 30.5N 45.3W 80 MPH Category 1 (E of Bermuda)
96H 27/1200Z 29.9N 45.9W 80 MPH Category 1 (E of Bermuda)
120H 28/1200Z 30.5N 47.1W 75 MPH Category 1 (E of Bermuda)

Previous Warning 1115 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook to add discussion of a new system over the central Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose, located a little over a hundred miles south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located just to the north of Grand Turk Island.

1. Updated: A small area of low pressure has developed over the central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The low is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, although the circulation appears somewhat elongated. Some additional development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly northward through early next week. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 40 percent.

Previous Warning  800 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jose, located a little less than two hundred miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located less than two hundred miles southeast of Grand Turk Island.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the remnants of Lee remain disorganized. Upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for significant development during the next few days. The low is forecast to move north-northwestward or northward over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

Previous Warning 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jose, located a couple of hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on extremely dangerous Hurricane Maria, located over Puerto Rico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized during the past several hours in association with the remnants of Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Although environmental conditions are marginal for development, only a small increase in the overall organization of the system would result in the regeneration of Lee. This low is expected to move northward over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, high, 70 percent.

Previous Warning 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on extremely dangerous Hurricane Maria, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea approaching the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

1. A small area of low pressure associated with remnants of Lee is producing disorganized shower activity about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. No development is expected during the next day or so, but environmental conditions could turn marginally conducive for tropical cyclone regeneration by the weekend. This low is expected to move northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent

Previous Warning 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located a few hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Maria, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea more than 100 miles southeast of St.
Croix.

1. A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is producing disorganized shower activity about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by the weekend while the system moves northwestward to northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Previous Warning  1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located a few hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Maria, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

1. A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by late in the week while the system moves northwestward to northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Previous Warning 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Lee has degenerated into a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent burst of convection, and no longer classifies as a tropical cyclone.

As forecast by global models, strong upper-level westerly winds have become established over the disturbance, and this pattern should not allow regeneration. Some additional bursts of convection could still develop while the disturbance moves northwestward until dissipation in a day or so.

This is the last advisory on Lee issued by the National Hurricane Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 15.1N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
12H 19/1200Z 16.0N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
24H 20/0000Z…DISSIPATED

Previous Warning 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

After being nearly devoid of thunderstorm activity overnight, a burst of deep convection has developed near and to the east of the center this morning. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with earlier ASCAT data. Despite the development of deep convection, the overall forecast reasoning for Lee’s future intensity is unchanged. Lee is expected to be embedded within very strong westerly to northwesterly shear during the next couple of days. These hostile winds, combined with a dry environment, should cause Lee to weaken and become a remnant low in about 24 hours. The global models suggest that Lee could open up into a trough within the next 2 to 3 days. Since the models remain in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one.

Lee is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level high pressure system. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight as the tropical depression moves toward a large-scale trough. A continued northwestward motion is forecast until the system dissipates over the central Atlantic. There is not much spread in the model solutions, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.1N 40.6W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
12H 19/0000Z 14.8N 41.9W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
24H 19/1200Z 16.0N 43.2W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
36H 20/0000Z 17.4N 44.2W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
48H 20/1200Z 18.9N 45.3W 25 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
72H 21/1200Z…DISSIPATED (W of Cape Verde, Islands)

Previous Warning 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

Deep convection associated with Lee has waned over the past several hours as dry air and shear take a toll on the tropical cyclone. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed 25 kt winds over the northwest portion of the circulation, assuming that there are stronger winds to the northeast of the center, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be generous.

The vertical shear is forecast to increase to greater than 30 kt during the next 24 hours and it is doubtful that Lee will be able to generate enough organized deep convection to keep its status as a tropical cyclone for much longer. As a result of the shear and nearby dry air, weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is predicted by Monday night, if not sooner. The global models show the circulation dissipating in 2 to 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast.

Lee has turned west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates, and little change to the previous NHC track forecast was required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.6N 38.5W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
12H 18/1200Z 14.1N 39.7W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
24H 19/0000Z 15.2N 41.4W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 42.8W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
48H 20/0000Z 17.7N 44.1W 25 MPH (W of Cape Verde, Islands)
72H 21/0000Z…DISSIPATED (W of Cape Verde, Islands)

Previous Warning 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

A small burst of deep convection re-formed near Lee’s center, but since the earlier ASCAT pass barely showed 30 kt, that will remain the initial intensity. Increasing shear and a dry mid-level environment will continue to take a toll on Lee during the next few days. Gradual weakening is still expected, and Lee could lose organized deep convection by 36 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF models degenerate the system into a surface trough by day 3, and dissipation is now indicated in the NHC forecast at that time.

Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt, but it should turn west-northwestward soon due to the weakness of the subtropical ridge to its north. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until Lee dissipates on day 3. Little change was required to the updated NHC track forecast, which lies close to theconsensus aids.

Previous Warning 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

An 1144 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Lee is no longer producing tropical-storm-force winds. In addition, deep convection is fizzling, and there are only a few convective elements remaining in a band to the south of the center. Lee is downgraded to a tropical depression with 30-kt winds, and even that could be generous given what the ASCAT data is showing. Since the cyclone is already struggling in its current environment, it probably won’t do much better going forward since vertical shear is expected to increase to 30 kt in about 24 hours. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected, and Lee could degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF both dissipate the low in 3 to 4 days, so the new NHC forecast now shows that occurring by day 4.

Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt. Even though the ridge to the north of the cyclone is not very strong, Lee’s weak nature should cause it to be steered generally westward or west-northwestward for the next 3 days before it dissipates. The NHC track forecast remains just south of the various consensus aids, and it is not too different from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 13.0N 36.7W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
12H 18/0000Z 13.2N 37.8W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
24H 18/1200Z 13.8N 39.5W 35 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 41.2W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
48H 19/1200Z 15.7N 42.8W 30 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
72H 20/1200Z 17.5N 45.9W  30 MPH (E of Antigua and Barbuda)

Previous Warning 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 34.2 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A west-northwestward motion is expected Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Previous Warning 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

Deep convection has increased in intensity and coverage since this time yesterday, and a recent partial ASCAT pass from around 1100 UTC indicated that the system is now producing tropical-storm-force winds at least to the east of its center. Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee with maximum winds of 35 kt. Lee has been able to strengthen a little despite about 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear.

The cyclone appears to be located in a sweet spot of relatively low shear, with much stronger upper- level westerly winds located not too far to the north, and it may be able to thread the needle of lower shear for another 36 hours or so. After that time, the westerlies drop southward, and Lee will likely be hammered by 30 kt of westerly shear by 48 hours. With all that in mind, Lee is forecast to strengthen only slightly over the next day or so, with weakening expected to begin by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and HCCA, and Lee may ultimately degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.

Lee’s initial motion is estimated to be 265/10 kt. The storm is located to the south of a weak mid-level ridge, and it is expected to move generally westward or west-northwestward for the entire forecast period. Although some of the track models are showing a more pronounced poleward motion, Lee’s relatively low intensity and eventual weakening will likely keep it steered by lower-level flow. As a result, the NHC track forecast is near the southern edge of the guidance envelope, although not quite as far south as the ECMWF model. This forecast is not too different from the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.5N 33.1W 40 MPH (W of Cape Verde Islands)
12H 17/0000Z 12.4N 34.1W 45 MPH  (W of Cape Verde Islands)
24H 17/1200Z 12.5N 35.3W 45 MPH  (NE of Trinidad and Tobago)
36H 18/0000Z 12.9N 36.7W 45 MPH  (E of Barbados)
48H 18/1200Z 13.6N 38.4W 45 MPH  (E of Barbados)
72H 19/1200Z 15.6N 42.3W 40 MPH  (E of Dominica)
96H 20/1200Z 17.0N 46.0W 35 MPH  (E of Antigua and Barbuda)
120H 21/1200Z 18.0N 49.5W 30 MPH  (E of Antigua and Barbuda)

Previous Warning 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located near the northern coast of central Cuba, and on Hurricane Jose, located just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Katia, which has dissipated over eastern Mexico.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands has become somewhat better organized today. Environmental conditions are expected to support at least some additional development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system moves generally northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 40 percent.

Follow the Atlantic Ocean weather updates on Cruise Ship Weather.

Previous Warning 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located near the coast of central Cuba, on Hurricane Jose, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Katia, located inland over eastern Mexico.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has increased since yesterday, and some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 30 percent.

Video: Updates on Hurricane Jose, Maria and Lee

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