NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. Katia is stationary and little overall motion is anticipated through late today. However, the hurricane is forecast to turn west-southwestward and approach the coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours and Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall.
Katia is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
Previous Warning 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017
…KATIA MOVING LITTLE…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 210 MI…335 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI…315 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES
Previous Warning 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017
Conventional satellite imagery shows improved organization of the cloud pattern during the past several hours, with recent cold cloud top of -80C associated with deep convective bursts near the surface center. An earlier SSMI/S microwave pass also revealed a developing curved band feature in the eastern portion of the cyclone. Additionally, a 0306 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated winds of 35 kt in the aforementioned rain band.
A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of 35 kt from TAFB and the scatterometer wind data support upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Katia at this time. The SHIPS model and the CIMSS shear analysis indicate westerly shear impinging the western side of Katia, but the flow aloft appears to be more diffluent now, indicative of the recent deep convective outbreak. Guidance continues to suggest that the shear will relax in about 36 hours which should allow Katia to strengthen, possibly to a hurricane as indicated in the HWRF forecast. There are no changes to the intensity forecast from the previous advisory, and it’s based on the IVCN multi-model.
The initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 110/2 kt. Katia has been drifting generally in this direction during the past several hours within weak steering currents associated with a mid-tropospheric trough digging southwestward from the Mississippi Valley. Later today, Katia should begin a gradual turn southeastward and southwestward around the 36 hour period as a mid-level ridge builds over the western gulf from Texas. The official forecast basically splits the guidance envelope and is hedged toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus Model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 22.1N 96.3W 40 MPH (E of Tampico, Mexico – Gulf of Mexico)
12H 06/1800Z 21.9N 96.0W 45 MPH (E of Tampico, Mexico – Gulf of Mexico)
24H 07/0600Z 21.6N 95.6W 60 MPH (E of Tampico, Mexico – Gulf of Mexico)
36H 07/1800Z 21.3N 95.4W 65 MPH (E of Tampico, Mexico – Gulf of Mexico)
48H 08/0600Z 21.1N 95.6W 70 MPH (E of Tampico, Mexico – Gulf of Mexico)
72H 09/0600Z 20.4N 96.7W 70 MPH (E of Tampico, Mexico – Gulf of Mexico)
96H 10/0600Z 19.2N 98.7W 30 MPH (E of Tampico, Mexico – Gulf of Mexico)
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