Tropical Storm Jose

Tropical Storm Jose Track 1100 Hours September 22 2017
Tropical Storm Jose Track 1100 Hours September 22 2017
Tropical Storm Jose 1100 Hours September 22 2017
Tropical Storm Jose 1100 Hours September 22 2017

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 22 2017

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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

The large circulation of Jose has not changed much during the past several hours, with a small burst of moderate-to-deep convection rotating around the center. Satellite classifications support reducing the winds to 40 kt for this advisory. Surface observations are still showing sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the warning areas, so advisories will be maintained on Jose. These winds should diminish this afternoon or evening according to all of the model guidance as Jose gradually weakens. The intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, showing a slow decay of the winds over cold waters, which is well supported by the latest global model guidance.

Jose has been erratically moving during the past 24 hours, with a southwestward drift most recently noted. The system is expected to stay trapped in light steering flow and move little for the next couple of days, then take a more westward turn by day 3 as the circulation of Maria and a ridge over the northeastern United States steer the weak cyclone. However, all models suggest it will be quite weak by day 3 and open up into a trough on day 4. Only small changes were made to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring over portions of extreme southeastern New England. These  conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 39.5N 69.4W 45 MPH (E of Atlantic City, NJ)
12H 23/0000Z 39.4N 69.5W 40 MPH  (E of Atlantic City, NJ)
24H 23/1200Z 39.3N 69.1W 35 MPH  (E of Atlantic City, NJ)
36H 24/0000Z 38.9N 68.3W 35 MPH  (E of Atlantic City, NJ)
48H 24/1200Z 38.8N 68.1W 30 MPH  (E of Atlantic City, NJ)
72H 25/1200Z 38.5N 69.0W 30 MPH  (E of Atlantic City, NJ)
96H 26/1200Z…DISSIPATED

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Previous Warning 200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

…JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

…HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…39.5N 67.9W
ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 67.9 West. Jose is stationary, and the system is expected to meander well offshore of the coast of southeast New England for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Jose is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or on Friday.

Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 38 mph (62 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently reported at the Nantucket Airport. An unofficial observing site in Vineyard Haven on Martha’s Vineyard recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

Previous Warning 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

…AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT JOSE IS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…39.0N 70.0W
ABOUT 150 MI…245 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this morning and found maximum flight-level winds of 78 kt at 5,000 feet and peak SFMR surface winds of 56 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is set at 60 kt, which is slightly higher than the previous estimate. Jose remains a sprawling cyclone, with tropical storm force winds extending 180 n mi from the center. Although Jose does not have a purely tropical appearance, it still has a warm core and well-defined convective bands, especially to the north of the center.

Jose is moving northeastward at 7 kt toward a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada. A slightly slower northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight. Thereafter, the trough is expected to lift out, allowing a mid-level high pressure system to build to the northwest of Jose. This will likely cause the storm to reverse its course and drift westward or west-southwestward. In about 3 days, however, the models suggest
that Jose will be caught in very weak steering currents, and the NHC official track forecast now shows Jose stationary from 72 to 120 hours.

The tropical storm is moving over a tight SST gradient associated with the north wall of the Gulf Stream current, and it will likely remain over this gradient for the next several days. These relatively cool SSTs and dry air should cause a slow weakening trend, and a gradual transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the previous one and is in best agreement with the consensus models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England during the next couple of days,and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches in Nantucket as it passes offshore today into Thursday. This rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 39.0N 70.0W 70 MPH (SE of Atlantic City, NJ)
12H 21/0000Z 39.5N 69.0W 70 MPH (SE of Toms River, NJ )
24H 21/1200Z 39.8N 68.1W 65 MPH (NE of Atlantic City, NJ)
36H 22/0000Z 39.6N 68.3W 50 MPH (SE of Toms River, NJ )
48H 22/1200Z 39.5N 69.0W 45 MPH (NE of Atlantic City, NJ)
72H 23/1200Z 39.3N 70.0W 45 MPH (SE of Atlantic City, NJ)
96H 24/1200Z 39.3N 70.0W 40 MPH (SE of Atlantic City, NJ)
120H 25/1200Z 39.3N 70.0W 35 MPH (SE of Atlantic City, NJ)

Previous Warning 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2017

…JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.8N 70.2W
ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 70.2 West. Jose is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

Previous Warning 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

…HURRICANE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…37.5N 71.2W
ABOUT 265 MI…460 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…973 MB…28.73 INCHES

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located by an Air Force reconnaissance plane near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 71.2 West. Jose is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by Wednesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later tonight, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force plane was 973 mb (28.73 inches).

Previous Warning  200 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

…HURRICANE JOSE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…36.9N 71.5W
ABOUT 255 MI…415 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 310 MI…500 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located by an an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 71.5 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn to the northeast tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

Previous Warning 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Jose’s overall structure and wind field have changed little since the previous advisory. Although the highest 700-mb flight-level wind and SFMR surface winds reported by the aircraft were 66 kt and 57 kt, respectively, these winds were observed in areas of little or no convection. Given the large size of Jose’s wind field, it unlikely that the aircraft sampled the strongest winds, and the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The aircraft also measured a central pressure of 976 mb, indicating that Jose remains a strong cyclone.

The low-level center has been wobbling around inside the larger inner-core circulation, resulting in a forward motion a little west of due north or 350/06 kt. Overall there is no significant change to the previous track forecast. The global and regional models remain in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning toward the northeast and east over the next couple days as it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic. On days 3-5, the models agree on a high-latitude ridge building to the north of the cyclone, forcing Jose to move slowly or drift southward over the North Atlantic. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and
lies close to a blend of the various consensus models.

Since the previous advisory, shallow convection has been increasing in both depth and areal coverage in the southeastern semicircle, while deeper convection has remained over the northwestern semicircle. The recent formation of convection to the southeast is beginning to give Jose the appearance of developing a large truck-tire eye with a diameter of approximately 100 nmi. Such eye patterns typically indicate a fairly stable cyclone that doesn’t weaken or weakens only slowly. Although the center of Jose will be moving over 21C SSTs by 36-48 h, a significant portion of the large
circulation will still be situated over water south of the Gulf Stream that is positioned along 40N latitude, which will maintain a southerly feed of warm, moist, unstable air into and north of the center. Given the combination of the aforementioned favorable thermodynamic conditions and only modest vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, the intensity forecast remains basically unchanged from the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the U.S. east coast from Long Island to
southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 36.5N 71.7W 75 MPH Category 1 (SE of Virginia Beach,)
12H 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.9W 75 MPH  Category 1 (SE of Ocean City, MD)
24H 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W 70 MPH  (E of Atlantic City, NJ)
36H 21/0000Z 39.9N 68.1W 65 MPH  (SE of New York)
48H 21/1200Z 39.9N 67.1W 60 MPH  (E of New Jersey)
72H 22/1200Z 39.2N 66.9W 50 MPH  (E of New Jersey)
120H 24/1200Z 38.4N 67.7W 45 MPH  (E of Delaware)

Previous Warning 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

…JOSE STILL A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE…
…EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…36.3N 71.6W
ABOUT 235 MI…380 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 350 MI…560 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…973 MB…28.73 INCHES

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located by an an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 71.6 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today with a turn to the northeast anticipated tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Jose should
begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday.

Jose is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A ship located more than 200 miles southwest of the center of Jose recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h), and NOAA Buoy 44014, located east of the Virginia-North Carolina border or about 160 miles west of the center, also reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 973 mb (28.68 inches).

Previous Warning 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Aircraft data indicate that the peak winds of Jose haven’t changed much since the last flight, with similar pressure values and flight-level winds. The wind speed will remain 65 kt in accordance with the flight-level winds, but this could be generous as the SFMR was a bit lower.

Satellite images show that Jose has become a little less tropical, with an elongated cloud pattern suggesting that the cyclone has some hybrid characteristics. Jose should eventually weaken in a day or so as it moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream into a more stable environment. Little change was made to the previous forecast, which is similar to much of the guidance, and Jose should become post-tropical in a few days. The long range forecast intensity depends on how far south the system moves, but since the predicted track is still over cool waters, slow weakening is anticipated.

The center of Jose took a north-northwest turn earlier tonight due to a convective burst, but it now appears it is back to moving toward the north. A continued northward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. All of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore of southern New England, but close enough to cause tropical-storm-force winds for a portion of the area. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose drifting to the south and southwest under a blocking ridge forming over the northeastern United States. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. This rainfall could cause isolate flooding. Elsewhere Jose is expected to produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the majority of the mid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 35.2N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 36.2N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 39.8N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 39.4N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0000Z 38.5N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 38.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL

Previous Warning 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…34.8N 71.5W
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 445 MI…720 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…973 MB…28.73 INCHES

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 71.5 West. Jose has been nearly stationary during the past few hours, but it should resume a motion toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) later tonight or Tuesday. A turn to the northeast is expected to occur on Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula early Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reconnaissance plane was 973 mb (28.73 inches).

Previous Warning 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

JOSE PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…34.2N 71.0W
ABOUT 265 MI…425 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 490 MI…790 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…977 MB…28.85 INCHES

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 71.0 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. A turn to the northeast is expected to occur on Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina this evening, pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula tonight and Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).

Previous Warning 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Satellite images indicate that Jose is losing some tropical characteristics. The cloud pattern of the hurricane is asymmetric with much of the central convection and convective bands confined to the north of the center. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have found that Jose is weaker, with maximum flight-level winds of 78 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 58 kt observed. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt.

Jose should remain over warm Gulf Stream waters during the next 24 hours, but it will also be in an environment of strong south-southwesterly shear, so little change in strength is expected during that time. Shortly thereafter, the hurricane is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition, which is now expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term to account for the slightly lower initial wind speed.

The hurricane has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been northward at 8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic
should continue to steer Jose northward at about the same forward speed during the next day or two. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift southward by the end of the forecast period. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this prediction lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England, where a tropical storm watch is in effect.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. While the risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 33.9N 71.1W 75 MPH Category 1 (NE of Myrtle Beach, SC)
12H 19/0000Z 35.1N 71.3W 75 MPH  Category 1 (E of Morehead City, NC)
24H 19/1200Z 36.7N 71.3W 75 MPH  Category 1 (E of Virginia Beach, VA)
36H 20/0000Z 38.2N 70.9W 75 MPH  Category 1 (E of Ocean City, MD)
48H 20/1200Z 39.4N 70.0W 70 MPH (E of Atlantic City, NJ)
72H 21/1200Z 40.0N 67.9W 60 MPH (SE of New York)
96H 22/1200Z 39.1N 68.3W 60 MPH (E of Atlantic City, NJ)
120H 23/1200Z 38.5N 68.5W 50 MPH (NE of Ocean City, MD)

Previous Warning 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

…NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING JOSE…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…33.5N 71.2W
ABOUT 270 MI…440 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 380 MI…610 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 71.2 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North
Carolina today, pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula tonight and Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, however, Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force data is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

Previous Warning 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Jose’s cloud pattern has transformed from one with a tight innercore to one with a large convective band over the northern semicircle that wraps around the center. This change in structure can be seen in recent microwave imagery and aircraft data that show an expansion of the radius of maximum winds. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still support an initial wind speed of 80 kt, but the minimum pressure has risen several millibars since this morning.

Strong southwesterly shear and gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the track of Jose are expected to cause gradual weakening, however Jose is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity through 48 hours. Around that time, Jose is forecast to pass north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much cooler waters, which will likely result in an additional decrease in intensity at 72 h and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS guidance through 72 h, and closer to the global models at days 4 and 5.

Jose is moving northward at about 8 kt around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The track forecast reasoning is the same as the previous advisory. Jose should continue northward during the next day or so, then turn north- northeastward as a broad mid-latitude trough passes north of the hurricane. After the trough passes Jose’s longitude in about 72 h, the cyclone will be left within weak steering currents and is expected to drift eastward, then southeastward and southward late in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast through 72 h is virtually on top of the previous advisory. The latest dynamical model guidance takes Jose a little more westward very late in the period, and the new NHC track forecast has been shifted to the left at day 5, close to the latest ECMWF ensemble mean.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. A tropical storm watch is now in effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total
accumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. Based on the current forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope. Any deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation
were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 32.2N 71.6W 90 MPH Category 1 (SE of Charleston, SC)
12H 18/1200Z 33.4N 71.6W 85 MPH Category 1 (E of Myrtle Beach)
24H 19/0000Z 34.9N 71.6W 85 MPH Category 1 (NE of Morehead City, NC)
36H 19/1200Z 36.6N 71.6W 80 MPH Category 1 (E of Virginia Beach, VA)
48H 20/0000Z 38.3N 71.0W 75 MPH Category 1 (E of Ocean City, MD)
72H 21/0000Z 40.2N 68.8W 65 MPH (E of New York)
96H 22/0000Z 39.5N 68.0W 60 MPH (E of New Jersey)
120H 23/0000Z 38.5N 68.0W 50 MPH (E of Delaware)

Previous Warning 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The satellite appearance of Jose has generally changed little during the past several hours. Microwave data indicate that the center of circulation is located on the south side of the main area of deep convection, likely due to strong southerly shear. The current intensity is held at 80 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. The initial wind radii have been adjusted outward in accordance with the ASCAT data from a few hours ago.

The strong wind shear currently affecting Jose is expected to continue for another day or so. Although the shear is expected to slacken beyond that time, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current by then and move into a progressively drier environment. These conditions should cause a slow weakening trend through the period, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. It should be noted, however, that despite the expected weakening, the models suggest that Jose’s outer wind field will expand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that move into the mid-latitudes.

The hurricane continues to move northward at 8 kt on the west side of a subtropical ridge. This general motion is expected to persist for the next 2 to 3 days while the steering pattern holds. Thereafter, a turn to the northeast and then east is predicted as a trough currently over central Canada moves closer to Jose. This trough, however, is not expected to pick up Jose, and instead the cyclone is expected to meander or drift southward by the end of the forecast period. The 5-day forecast position has been adjusted to the southwest of the previous NHC prediction, but otherwise only minor changes were made.

The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will both be investigating Jose this evening. This valuable data will help assess the hurricane’s initial intensity and structure, and assist the models in determining the future path and intensity of the hurricane.

INIT 17/2100Z 31.5N 71.8W 90 MPH Category 1 (SE of Hilton Head Island, SC)
12H 18/0600Z 32.7N 71.7W 90 MPH  Category 1 (E of Charleston, SC)
24H 18/1800Z 34.3N 71.8W 85 MPH  Category 1 (E of Wilmington, NC)
36H 19/0600Z 35.9N 71.9W 80 MPH  Category 1 (E of Nags Head, NC)
48H 19/1800Z 37.7N 71.6W 75 MPH  Category 1 (SE of Chincoteague , VA)
72H 20/1800Z 40.1N 69.7W 65 MPH (E of New Jersey)
96H 21/1800Z 39.7N 67.5W 60 MPH (E of New Jersey)
120H 22/1800Z 38.5N 67.0W 60 MPH (E of Delaware)

Previous Warning 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2017

The satellite presentation of Jose continues to reveal little change in the overall cloud structure since yesterday afternoon. The 25-30 kt of westerly shear is inhibiting any further development of the inner core. Cloud tops have warmed near the center and the cyclone appears to be tilted toward the northeast with height in earlier microwave images. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged from the last advisory, and the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. Due to the expected shear persisting through the entire forecast period, the statistical and dynamical intensity guidance no longer indicate any hint of strengthening, even in the short term. Accordingly, The NHC forecast reflects little change in strength through the 48 hour period, then shows gradual weakening through 5 days.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this northward track, along the western periphery of the Bermuda high, through 48 hours. Afterward, Jose should gradually turn north-northeastward to northeastward on days 3 and 4. Near the end of the forecast period, Jose is forecast to slowly turn eastward within the mid-latitude, mid-level westerly flow associated with shortwave trough moving over the Canadian Maritimes. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the west, closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and near a blend of the UKMET, and ECMWF which have also shifted a bit westward.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a  westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 71.7W 80 MPH Category 1 (SE of Jacksonville, FL)
12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 71.6W 80 MPH  Category 1 (NE of Jacksonville, FL)
24H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 80 MPH  Category 1 (E of Charleston, SC)
36H 18/1800Z 34.0N 71.5W 75 MPH  Category 1 (SE of Wilmington, NC)
48H 19/0600Z 35.6N 71.3W 75 MPH  Category 1 ) SE of Nags Head, NC)
72H 20/0600Z 38.6N 70.2W 70 MPH (E of Rehoboth Beach, DE)
96H 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.4W  60 MPH (NE  of New York)
120H 22/0600Z 39.8N 64.8W 50 MPH (E of New Jersey)

Previous Warning 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

…JOSE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH 80-MPH WINDS. LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 71.9 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next couple of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Monday.

The aircraft data indicate that Jose has increased in size. Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

Previous Warning 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Earlier microwave data seemed to suggest that Jose’s low-level center is displaced to the northwest of the mid-level microwave eye, which is not surprising given that the various shear analyses indicate about 25 kt from the west-northwest. The initial intensity is being held at 70 kt, pending the arrival of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon.

The shear over Jose is not expected to abate, and in fact, it could increase further in the next 36 to 48 hours. However, the hurricane will remain over warm waters south of the Gulf Stream for the next
three days, and the intensity models suggest that it should be able to at least maintain its intensity, if not strengthen slightly. After day 3, the hurricane will move north of the Gulf Stream over much colder water, and that will likely lead to the system weakening to a tropical storm. Although there will be a cold front approaching from the northwest by day 5, Jose still looks separated from the frontal zone at that point, and there is no appreciable injection of baroclinic energy at that time to allow for
strengthening.

Best I can tell, Jose is moving northwestward with an initial motion of 320/8 kt. Jose will be moving around the western periphery of a mid-level high anchored to the east of Bermuda, which will cause it to turn northward and maintain that heading through day 3. The track models are tightly clustered during this period, and there is relatively high confidence in the NHC forecast. After day 3, the models have come into much better agreement that Jose will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the NHC track forecast is faster than the previous one by day 5 in order to keep up with the GFS and ECMWF. Regardless, Jose’s track and an expected increase in size will likely lead to impacts along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts in a few days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 28.8N 72.2W 80 MPH – Category 1 (E of  Port Canaveral, FL)
12H 17/0000Z 29.5N 72.4W 85 MPH  – Category 1 (E of Daytona Beach, FL)
24H 17/1200Z 30.8N 72.2W 85 MPH  – Category 1 (E of Jacksonville, FL)
36H 18/0000Z 32.4N 72.0W 85 MPH  – Category 1 (E of Charleston, SC)
48H 18/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 80 MPH  – Category 1 (E of Wilmington. NC)
72H 19/1200Z 37.2N 71.5W 75 MPH  – Category 1 (NE of Virginia Beach, VA)
96H 20/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 70 MPH (E of New York)
120H 21/1200Z 41.5N 63.5W 60 MPH (E of Massachusetts)

Previous Warning 800 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017

…JOSE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.8N 60.7W
ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…944 MB…27.88 INCHES

Previous Warning 500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Jose has continued to develop a well-defined eye on satellite imagery this afternoon, with the eye now established in the center of a ring of strong convection. 18 UTC Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB came in at T5.5, which suggests 100 knot intensity. However, given the ongoing improvements in satellite presentation and CIMSS ADT numbers which have since climbed higher, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 105 knots. This makes Jose a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is the third major hurricane in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season (Harvey, Irma). It also means we have two major hurricanes simultaneously in the Atlantic basin, which is not too common especially in such close proximity. The last time this happened was in 2010 when Igor and Julia were both major hurricanes on September 15-16, and then Igor and Karl were both major hurricanes briefly on September 17.

In the near-term, most factors appear aligned for continued intensification. Outflow remains well-established in all quadrants, and Jose has thus far not felt negative impacts from the dry air situated just to its west and northwest. For this reason, we are taking the intensity up to 120 knots at the 24 hour forecast point. After that, a gradual decrease in intensity is shown, in line with most intensity guidance. However, the intensity forecast generally
lies above most of the guidance in deference to the ongoing rapid intensification trend. Global models do show that some of the dry air to the west of Jose may wrap into the circulation in about 24-36 hours. That may be a contributing factor to the decrease in intensity, as well as some increasing shear at the base of an upper level low in the central Atlantic and perhaps the periphery of Irma’s upper level outflow. The smaller size of Jose may make it a little more vulnerable to effects of dry air and shear.

The initial motion remains at 285/16kt, and Jose will continue to be steered by a well established subtropical ridge. It should not reach the ridge axis until about 36-48 hours, at which point the ridge begins to erode a bit and Jose may turn a bit more toward the northwest and eventually the north. The forecast track remains very similar to the previous official forecast through 48 hours — roughly between the operational GFS and ECMWF and close to the multi-model consensus. After that time, the steering flow becomes weaker and the forward motion should slow down. Models begin to
diverge more significantly at 96hr and especially 120hr. The forecast at these time ranges lies closer to the multi-model consensus and the operational ECMWF than models that show a quicker exit to the east

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 52.4W 120 MPH Category 3  (E of Dominica)
12H 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 130 MPH Category 4  (E of Guadeloupe)
24H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W 140 MPH Category 4  (E of Antigua and Barbuda)
36H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W 125 MPH Category 3  (E of Antigua and Barbuda)
48H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W 120 MPH Category 3  (NE of Anguilla)
72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W 110 MPH Category 2  (NE of San Juan, Puerop Rico)
96H 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W 90 MPH Category 1 (NE of Turks and Caicos  )
120H 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W 85 MPH Category 1 (SW of Bermuda)

Previous Warning  200 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located north of the Dominican Republic, on Hurricane Jose, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, and on Hurricane Katia, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.4 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The hurricane is expected to continue on this heading with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Jose is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

Previous Warning 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

…JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.8N 49.1W
ABOUT 815 MI…1310 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES

Previous Warning 500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Satellite images indicate that Jose’s banding features are becoming better established, and the center is now located near the middle of the central dense overcast. An average of the Dvorak estimates from
TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin at 0600 UTC supported an intensity of 45 kt, but since the storm continues to organize, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt at this time.

Satellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 11 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 2 to 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the south and southwest sides of a subtropical high. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a weakness in the ridge. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day period on when and where Jose makes the northwest turn. The NHC official track forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

Additional steady strengthening seems likely during the next few days since Jose is expected to remain in favorable environmental conditions. In fact, the SHIPS model shows a 28 percent chance of Jose rapidly intensifying during the next 24 hours. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance, bringing Jose to hurricane strength by tonight and to near major hurricane strength in 72 hours. Thereafter, an increase in vertical wind shear and drier air should end the strengthening trend and cause some weakening. This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 12.5N 42.8W 60 MPH (SE of Barbados)
12H 06/1800Z 13.0N 45.0W 70 MPH (SE of Barbados)
24H 07/0600Z 13.7N 48.0W 80 MPH Category 1 Hurricane (SE of Barbados)
36H 07/1800Z 14.3N 50.9W 90 MPH  Category 1 Hurricane (SE of Barbados)
48H 08/0600Z 14.9N 53.7W 105 MPH  Category 2 Hurricane (NE of Barbados)
72H 09/0600Z 16.7N 57.8W 110 MPH  Category 2 Hurricane (E of Antigua and Barbuda)
96H 10/0600Z 19.4N 60.5W  105 MPH  Category 2 Hurricane (E of Antigua and Barbuda)
120H 11/0600Z 22.7N 63.6W 90 MPH  Category 1 Hurricane (E of Antigua and Barbuda)

Previous Warning 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, high, 70 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 40 percent.

Previous Warning 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression will likely form later this week while the system moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, high, 70 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while it drifts northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 30 percent.

Previous Warning 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that are currently displaced well to the west of the
wave axis. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 60 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extent from the Yucatan Peninsula westward into the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable for significant development as the system moves slowly northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

Previous Warning 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that are currently displaced well to the west of the
wave axis.

Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 60 percent.

Previous Warning FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, high, 70 percent.

Previous Warning 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Harvey, located over Kentucky.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave.

Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development in a couple of days, and this system could become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.  Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, high, 70 percent.

Previous Warning 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Harvey, located over Kentucky.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple of days, and this system could become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 60 percent.

Previous Warning 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Harvey, located over Kentucky.

1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development in a few days, and this system could become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward at 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 60 percent.

Previous Warning 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression after the weekend while it moves westward at 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days. medium, 60 percent.

Previous Warning 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Harvey, located over Tennessee.

1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression after the weekend while it moves westward at 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 50 percent.

Previous Warning 800 PM EDT Thur Aug 31, 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Harvey, located over northern Mississippi.

1. A tropical wave emerging over the far eastern Atlantic is moving westward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development over the weekend and early next week while the system moves well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 40 percent.

2. A area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend, however, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by that time. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coasts are encouraged to consult products from their local NWS Forecast Office for more information about impacts from any non-tropical weather systems. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

Previous Warning 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

1. An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward. If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall forecast is uncertain at this time range, and it is too soon to determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this potential system for the next few days.Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

2. A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is moving westward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some development over the weekend while the system moves well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Previous Warning 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017.

An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward. If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

However, any rainfall forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.

Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Previous Warning 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.

If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system for the next few days. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

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Video: South Shore Communities Feeling Effects Of Jose