Tropical Storm Gilma

Tropical Depression Gilma 1700 Hours July 28 2018
Tropical Depression Gilma 1700 Hours July 28 2018
Tropical Depression Gilma Satellite 1700 Hours July 28 2018
Tropical Depression Gilma Satellite 1700 Hours July 28 2018

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Gilma, located about 1300 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. (see July 26 video below)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Despite being in an environment of strong westerly shear, Gilma is maintaining its status as a tropical cyclone. Deep convection has been persisting on the eastern side of the system, and this activity has even moved a little closer to the center, aided by upper-level diffluence. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. This intensity estimate is a little lower than the 2.5/35 kt ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

Westerly shear of about 30 kt is likely to continue during the next few days, and the global models indicate that the upper-level flow should become less diffluent as Gilma approaches the Central Pacific basin. These hostile winds aloft combined with cooler SSTs and a more stable air mass should cause Gilma to gradually weaken during the next few days.

The NHC forecast continues to show Gilma becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours and degenerating into a trough by day 4, following the trend in the model guidance. The depression is moving westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days as the increasingly shallow system moves within the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 15.2N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 15.4N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 15.7N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 15.8N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1200Z 15.4N 144.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW (SE of Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Gilma, located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Gilma, located nearly 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical Depression Gilma centered near 14.7N 129.9W at 27/2100  UTC or 1730 sm E of South Point Hawaii moving W at 10 kt.  Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained  wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to  strong convection is currently observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 14N126W to 09N135W.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Gilma is feeling the effects of northwesterly shear. During the past several hours, the center of the system has been exposed at times with much of the convective activity being displaced to the southeast of the center. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a very recent ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak estimates. This makes Gilma a tropical depression.

Although Gilma is expected to be over relatively warm SSTs during the next couple of days, the northwesterly shear is forecast to become even more hostile. Therefore, continued weakening is anticipated, and Gilma is now forecast to become a remnant low by 48 hours when the shear is expected to be in excess of 30 kt. The remnant low is predicted to open into a trough by day 4 as shown by many of the global models. The depression is moving westward at 15 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days as the weak and increasingly shallow system is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 14.7N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 14.8N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 15.3N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 15.8N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma, located near 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Nine-E, which remnants are located about 1250 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Northwesterly shear has disrupted the already poorly organized cloud pattern associated with Gilma. The center is now exposed and located on the northwestern edge of the convection, and T-numbers are only 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. Earlier ASCAT data supported tropical storm strength, however, given that no new ASCAT information is available, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt in this advisory. Gilma could maintain its current strength until stronger westerly shear becomes established over the cyclone.

Shear and cooler waters will induce weakening, and Gilma is expected to become a remnant low in 3 days or earlier. Dissipation is expected therafter. The official forecast follows the intensity consensus trend. Gilma is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is on the southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. This steering flow pattern is forecast to persist, so no change in track is anticipated. The NHC forecast is located between the HFIP HCCA model and the simple track consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 14.9N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 15.0N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 15.2N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm Gilma – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

The cloud pattern associated with the cyclone has lost organization during the past several hours, with the low-level center now located at the northern edge of a smaller area of convection. Despite the ragged appearance in satellite imagery, recent ASCAT-A data showed an area of 35 kt winds to the northeast of the center. Based on this, the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gilma.

The initial motion is 285/14. Gilma should be steered westward to west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States. As the cyclone decays to a shallow remnant low late in the period, a more westward motion is expected. The new track forecast is similar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast, and it is a blend of the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus aids.

Gilma is located just to the east of an upper-level trough, which the large-scale models forecast to move or re-form westward just ahead of the storm for the next couple of days. This evolution is expected to keep the cyclone in an area of moderate vertical wind shear, but with some upper-level divergence to maintain convection. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening in agreement with the overall trend of the intensity guidance. After 36-48 h, Gilma is likely to move into strong and dry northwesterly upper-level flow west of the upper-level trough axis, which should lead to weakening and eventual dissipation. The new intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 120 h in agreement with the dynamical models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 14.4N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 14.6N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 15.0N 130.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 15.5N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 17.5N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly developed Tropical Depression Eight-E, located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on also newly developed Tropical Depression Nine-E, located about 1400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

1. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of Mexico by early next week. Gradual development is possible thereafter while the system moves westward to west-northwestward, well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

A recent ASCAT pass indicated that a very small 30-kt circulation has developed in association with the disturbance that the NHC has been tracking southwest of Baja California Sur during the past several days. On this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Eight.

However, the satellite presentation is not very well organized at this time, and Dvorak T-numbers are still low. Given the current environment of low shear and warm ocean, gradual strengthening is anticipated. However, global models indicate that the shear will markedly increase beyond 48 hours, and this wind pattern should result in weakening. The NHC forecast is a blend of HCCA and the simple intensity consensus.

The depression is moving toward the west or west-northwest at 14 kt around the periphery of the strong subtropical ridge. Since the ridge is forecast to persist, no significant change in the steering flow is anticipated. The cyclone should then continue on the same track for the next several days, although by the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become a westward moving remnant low. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 13.2N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images this morning indicate that the shower activity associated with a low pressure area located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is becoming better organized. Conditions are favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form at any time later today or Friday. This system is expected to move toward the west-northwest or west during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure system are located a little more than 1800 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is forecast to move westward and only a small increase in organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or early Friday. After that time, unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to become established over the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of Mexico early next week. Conditions are expected to be favorable for this system to gradually develop as it moves toward the west-northwest well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent..

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization during the past several hours. However, environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves toward the west or west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure system are located around 1800 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is forecast to move westward and only a small increase in organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or early Friday before unfavorable upper-level winds become established over the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 25 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A disorganized area of disturbed weather associated with an elongated area of low pressure is located near 1000 miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Conditions are expected to become favorable for gradual development during the next few days while the system moves toward the west or west-northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. A small area of low pressure accompanied by limited shower activity is located around 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slight development is possible today or tonight, but after that time, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation as the system moves generally westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Jul 25 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A disorganized area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure is moving westward, and is now located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Conditions are expected to become favorable for gradual development during the next few days while the system moves toward the west or west-northwest away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

2. A small area of low pressure accompanied by limited shower activity is located around 1450 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development is possible today or tomorrow. Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation as the system moves generally westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 24 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity. No significant development is expected during the next day or two, but conditions could become a little more favorable for tropical cyclone formation by this weekend while the system moves toward the west or west-northwest away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Jul 24 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a small low pressure area located more than 1700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has decreased and tropical cyclone formation is no longer anticipated. The system most likely will degenerate into a trough of low pressure and move into the Central Pacific basin in a day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

2. Although the shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico has increased some in organization this morning, no significant development is expected during the next day or two. However, conditions could become a little more favorable for tropical cyclone formation by this weekend while the system moves toward the west or west-northwest away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A disorganized area of disturbed weather located a little more than 1450 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and is expected to reach the Central Pacific in a couple of days. This system is heading toward unfavorable upper-level winds and tropical cyclone formation is becoming less likely. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

2. A weak low pressure system is located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The shower activity is currently disorganized but development, if any, will be slow to occur during the next few days while the system moves toward the west or west-northwest well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 10 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jul 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A disorganized area of disturbed weather located a little more than 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system is heading toward unfavorable upper-level winds and tropical cyclone formation is becoming less likely. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

2. A weak low pressure system is located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development is possible during the next few days while the system moves toward the west or west-northwest well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Jul 22 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure area located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the Big island of Hawaii is producing showers and thunderstorms to the east and southeast of the center. However, development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph and cross into the Central Pacific basin this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south and southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although this system remains disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week. This disturbance is expected to move toward the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

3. A weak area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little development of the system is expected during the next couple of days. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development while the system moves toward the west or west-northwest well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Jul 21 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure are located a little more than 1700 miles west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The system is already embedded within unfavorable upper-level winds and development is unlikely. The low is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and cross into the Central Pacific basin on late Sunday or early Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. Another area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico. Although this system is not showing any signs of organization at this time, conditions are forecast to become favorable for development and a tropical depression could form early next week. This disturbance is expected to move toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

3. And yet another area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves toward the west or west-northwest well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 20 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a broad low pressure area located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become too strong for development. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and cross into the Central Pacific basin late this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

2. A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

 

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Jul 20 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become too strong for development. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and cross into the Central Pacific basin late this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

2. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is likely, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions then appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Jul 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite wind data indicate that the broad area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become less organized since yesterday. Since the overall environment still appears to be conducive for development, some gradual organization is possible during the next few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are forecast to become increasingly favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves quickly westward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of Mexico is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave. A low pressure area is expected to form this weekend from this wave and gradual development is possible early next week while it continues westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it moves west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Jul 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system has become better organized during the past 24 hours, and further development is possible during the next several days while it moves quickly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend several hundred miles southwest of Mexico. Environmental conditions support some slow development of this system early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward well southwest of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear conducive for some development of this system next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are increasing over the system, and development is not anticipated. This system is expected to move westward during thenext few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

2. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next several days while it moves westward at low latitudes. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend several hundred miles southwest of Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible by early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Jul 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. This system is expected to move westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to become somewhat conducive for development of this system by the weekend while it moves quickly westward at low latitudes. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this week several hundred miles southwest of Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible by early next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Jul 17 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to show little change. Upper-level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for development during the next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has changed little since yesterday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development in one or two days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a low pressure system located about 1050 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the next day or so before upper-level winds become less conducive by mid-week. This disturbance has crossed into the Central Pacific basin, and future information on this system can be found in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has changed little over the past several hours. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development over the next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Tropical Storm Gilma? NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jul 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a low pressure system located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the next day or so before upper-level winds become less conducive by mid-week. This system is moving westward and is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has changed little over the past several hours. This disturbance is producing wind gusts to near gale force to the east of the wave axis. Although the environment is expected to be only marginally conducive, some additional development is possible during the next day or so while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. By Wednesday, strong upper-level winds will likely prevent further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Jul 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for some development of the disturbance in a few days as it moves westward around 10 mph. *

Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 12 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Pacific Ocean from  Central America and is located near 87W N of 08N. The wave is  moving W at 10-15 kt. It can be observed from the 700 mb  rawindsonde winds from Panama, San Jose, San Andres, and Belize;  Central American surface winds, as well as a maximum in total precipitable water.

No significant deep convection is occurring  over the eastern Pacific in association with the wave, though  there exists scattered moderate convection within 180 nm of the  wave axis over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan of  Mexico.

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