Tropical Storm Franklin Yucatan Mexico Warnings

Atlantic Ocean Weather Satellite Noon August 6 2017
Atlantic Ocean Weather Satellite Noon August 6 2017

 

Tropical Storm Franklin Projected Path August 7 2017
Tropical Storm Franklin Projected Path August 7 2017

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UPDATE: SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT

Visible and microwave satellite imagery shows that Franklin’s cloud pattern is becoming better organized with banding features starting to appear. Inner-core convection is not very abundant over the southwest quadrant and the center is still estimated to be located near the southwest edge of the main cloud mass.

Given the increase in organization after the 12Z Dvorak intensity estimate of 45 kt from TAFB, the advisory intensity is set to 50 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin this afternoon and should provide a better estimate of the strength of the storm.

Forecast Positions

INIT 07/1500Z 17.7N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 18.5N 86.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.5N 88.9W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 20.1N 91.1W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 20.5N 93.3W 60 KT 70 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 10/1200Z 20.8N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND

UPDATE: SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT
LOCATION…17.3N 84.7W
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 250 MI…400 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

The government of Belize has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning from Belize City northward to the border of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL  – 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 07 2017 (see video Below)

Deep convection associated with Franklin has been steadily increasing in both coverage and vertical depth since the previous advisory. Wind data from a late-arriving 0231Z ASCAT-A pass suggest that Franklin might not have had a closed surface circulation at that time. However, the new GOES-16 nighttime microphysics imagery clearly shows low clouds moving from west to east on the south side of the alleged center, which is suggestive of a closed low-level circulation. The intensity has been nudged upward to 40 kt based on sustained winds of 39 kt measured at 4-meters elevation from NOAA buoy 42057 located about 110 nmi east of the center.

After thecyclone crosses over Yucatan and moves into the Bay of Campeche byWednesday, a more westward motion is expected thereafter as the
ridge currently situated over northern Mexico and the southwesternU.S. builds southward. The track model guidance is tightly clustered around the previous forecast track, so the new forecast track is just an extension of the previous one and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.

The cyclone will weaken some as it moves over the Yucatan, but re-strengthening is expected after Franklin emerges over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche in the 48-72 h period. The NHC intensity forecast remains close to the higher SHIPS guidance at 24 hours, and is near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 17.1N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 18.0N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 19.0N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
36H 08/1800Z 19.9N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 20.4N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 10/0600Z 21.0N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 21.1N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

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Video: Tropical Storm Frankliln Could Become A Hurricane